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Today, a digital
stethoscope has the ability to record and store heartbeat and
respiratory sounds. Tomorrow, the stethoscope could function as an
“intelligent thing” by collecting a massive amount of such data,
relating the data to diagnostic and treatment information, and building
an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered doctor assistance app to provide
the physician with diagnostic support in real-time. AI and machine
learning increasingly will be embedded into everyday things such as
appliances, speakers and hospital equipment. This phenomenon is closely
aligned with the emergence of conversational systems, the expansion of
the IoT into a digital mesh and the trend toward digital twins.
Three themes — intelligent, digital,
and mesh — form the basis for the Top 10 strategic technology trends for
2017, announced by David Cearley, vice president and Gartner Fellow, at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2016
in Orlando, Florida. These technologies are just beginning to break out
of an emerging state and stand to have substantial disruptive potential
across industries.
Intelligent
AI and machine learning have reached a critical tipping point and
will increasingly augment and extend virtually every technology enabled
service, thing or application. Creating intelligent systems that learn,
adapt and potentially act autonomously rather than simply execute
predefined instructions is primary battleground for technology vendors
through at least 2020.
Trend No. 1: AI & Advanced Machine Learning
AI and machine learning (ML), which include technologies such as deep
learning, neural networks and natural-language processing, can also
encompass more advanced systems that understand, learn, predict, adapt
and potentially operate autonomously. Systems can learn and change
future behavior, leading to the creation of more intelligent devices and
programs. The combination of extensive parallel processing power,
advanced algorithms and massive data sets to feed the algorithms has
unleashed this new era.
In banking, you could use AI and machine-learning techniques to model
current real-time transactions, as well as predictive models of
transactions based on their likelihood of being fraudulent.
Organizations seeking to drive digital innovation with this trend should
evaluate a number of business scenarios in which AI and machine
learning could drive clear and specific business value and consider
experimenting with one or two high-impact scenarios..
Trend No. 2: Intelligent Apps
Intelligent apps, which include technologies like virtual personal
assistants (VPAs), have the potential to transform the workplace by
making everyday tasks easier (prioritizing emails) and its users more
effective (highlighting important content and interactions). However,
intelligent apps are not limited to new digital assistants – every
existing software category from security tooling to enterprise
applications such as marketing or ERP will be infused with AI enabled
capabilities. Using AI, technology providers will focus on three areas —
advanced analytics, AI-powered and increasingly autonomous business
processes and AI-powered immersive, conversational and continuous
interfaces. By 2018, Gartner expects most of the world’s largest 200
companies to exploit intelligent apps and utilize the full toolkit of
big data and analytics tools to refine their offers and improve customer
experience.
Trend No. 3: Intelligent Things
New intelligent things generally fall into three categories: robots,
drones and autonomous vehicles. Each of these areas will evolve to
impact a larger segment of the market and support a new phase of digital
business but these represent only one facet of intelligent things.
Existing things including IoT devices will become intelligent things
delivering the power of AI enabled systems everywhere including the
home, office, factory floor, and medical facility.
As intelligent things evolve and become more popular, they will shift
from a stand-alone to a collaborative model in which intelligent things
communicate with one another and act in concert to accomplish tasks.
However, nontechnical issues such as liability and privacy, along with
the complexity of creating highly specialized assistants, will slow
embedded intelligence in some scenarios.
Digital
The lines between the digital and physical world continue to blur
creating new opportunities for digital businesses. Look for the digital
world to be an increasingly detailed reflection of the physical world
and the digital world to appear as part of the physical world creating
fertile ground for new business models and digitally enabled ecosystems.
Trend No. 4: Virtual & Augmented Reality
Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) transform the way
individuals interact with each other and with software systems creating
an immersive environment. For example, VR can be used for training
scenarios and remote experiences. AR, which enables a blending of the
real and virtual worlds, means businesses can overlay graphics onto
real-world objects, such as hidden wires on the image of a wall.
Immersive experiences with AR and VR are reaching tipping points in
terms of price and capability but will not replace other interface
models. Over time AR and VR expand beyond visual immersion to include
all human senses. Enterprises should look for targeted applications of
VR and AR through 2020.
Trend No. 5: Digital Twin
Within three to five years, billions of things will be represented by
digital twins, a dynamic software model of a physical thing or system.
Using physics data on how the components of a thing operate and respond
to the environment as well as data provided by sensors in the physical
world, a digital twin can be used to analyze and simulate real world
conditions, responds to changes, improve operations and add value.
Digital twins function as proxies for the combination of skilled
individuals (e.g., technicians) and traditional monitoring devices and
controls (e.g., pressure gauges). Their proliferation will require a
cultural change, as those who understand the maintenance of real-world
things collaborate with data scientists and IT professionals. Digital
twins of physical assets combined with digital representations of
facilities and environments as well as people, businesses and processes
will enable an increasingly detailed digital representation of the real
world for simulation, analysis and control.
Trend No. 6: Blockchain
Blockchain is a type of distributed ledger in which value exchange
transactions (in bitcoin or other token) are sequentially grouped into
blocks. Blockchain and distributed-ledger concepts are gaining traction
because they hold the promise of transforming industry operating models
in industries such as music distribution, identify verification and
title registry. They promise a model to add trust to untrusted
environments and reduce business friction by providing transparent
access to the information in the chain. While there is a great deal of
interest the majority of blockchain initiatives are in alpha or beta
phases and significant technology challenges exist.
Mesh
The mesh refers to the dynamic connection of people, processes,
things and services supporting intelligent digital ecosystems. As the
mesh evolves, the user experience fundamentally changes and the
supporting technology and security architectures and platforms must
change as well.
Trend No. 7: Conversational Systems
Conversational systems can range from simple informal, bidirectional
text or voice conversations such as an answer to “What time is it?” to
more complex interactions such as collecting oral testimony from crime
witnesses to generate a sketch of a suspect. Conversational systems
shift from a model where people adapt to computers to one where the
computer “hears” and adapts to a person’s desired outcome.
Conversational systems do not use text/voice as the exclusive interface
but enable people and machines to use multiple modalities (e.g., sight,
sound, tactile, etc.) to communicate across the digital device mesh
(e.g., sensors, appliances, IoT systems).
Trend No. 8: Mesh App and Service Architecture
The intelligent digital mesh will require changes to the
architecture, technology and tools used to develop solutions. The mesh
app and service architecture (MASA) is a multichannel solution
architecture that leverages cloud and serverless computing, containers
and microservices as well as APIs and events to deliver modular,
flexible and dynamic solutions. Solutions ultimately support multiple
users in multiple roles using multiple devices and communicating over
multiple networks. However, MASA is a long term architectural shift that
requires significant changes to development tooling and best practices.
Trend No. 9: Digital Technology Platforms
Digital technology platforms are the building blocks for a digital
business and are necessary to break into digital. Every organization
will have some mix of five digital technology platforms: Information
systems, customer experience, analytics and intelligence, the Internet
of Things and business ecosystems. In particular new platforms and
services for IoT, AI and conversational systems will be a key focus
through 2020. Companies should identify how industry platforms will
evolve and plan ways to evolve their platforms to meet the challenges of
digital business.
Trend No. 10: Adaptive Security Architecture
The evolution of the intelligent digital mesh and digital technology
platforms and application architectures means that security has to
become fluid and adaptive. Security in the IoT environment is
particularly challenging. Security teams need to work with application,
solution and enterprise architects to consider security early in the
design of applications or IoT solutions. Multilayered security and use
of user and entity behavior analytics will become a requirement for
virtually every enterprise.
David Cearley is vice president and Gartner Fellow in Gartner
Research and is a leading authority on information technology. Mr.
Cearley analyzes emerging and strategic business and technology trends
and explores how these trends shape the way individuals and companies
derive value from technology.
Source Link:
http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/gartners-top-10-technology-trends-2017/
